THE NEXT WAR WILL START WITH A BLACKOUT
November 11th, 2009 by Jay FidellIf you haven't seen it already, see tinyurl.com/kroft, the segment on last Sunday’s 60 Minutes reporting on cyber snooping.
It’s the kind of story that sticks in your brain. As much as you would like to ignore it, you really can't. Sure enough, there was a similar story in today’s Washington Post - tinyurl.com/nakashima-pomfret.
Both reported that the Chinese are looking at our military secrets. They might not be doing anything with that information but they are certainly getting it. It's hard to react because we are doing the same thing, but it’s still troublesome to know that their technology is that good and that they are using it regularly.
This first came up in the paper about six months ago, when a group of graduate tech students in Toronto reported that the Chinese were breaking into computers around the world. That was disturbing, but it’s somehow more disturbing when you find out on 60 Minutes and the Washington Post.
Snooping isn't the end of it - there's also cyber sabotage. 60 Minutes also talked about how the bad guys, e.g., the terrorists, can take our grid down or snafu our money system. Either would have a profound effect. The money system would take a little longer but the result would be the same – disorganization then anarchy.
The program showed a scenario in which a turbine can be destroyed over the internet. Since the grid is interdependent, everything would be down until it was fixed. With the city dark, it wouldn’t be easy to get a replacement especially if it was manufactured overseas.
What do you think would happen to a modern American city if the power was out for three or four months, much less three or four days.
Things could really come apart. Our backup systems, and for that matter our cell phones, would run down pretty quickly. Our cars would run out of gas. We’d be reduced to primeval in a matter of days. They wouldn’t have to hurt us, we’d hurt ourselves.
Is the federal government doing anything to prevent these scenarios? Probably yes. Should we be confident? Probably no. The further away you get from a populated area, the safer you are. But most people are near the city center, and they are the most at risk.
It’s only a power failure, a blackout. What can you do? Does it warrant a nuclear response? That seems inappropriate. The bad guys, whoever they are, didn't actually hurt anybody, so why would we? My guess is that we wouldn't.
Leveraged technology makes our world so different. It makes the risks and possibilities so much more fearful. As one of the intelligence people on 60 Minutes said, the next war isn't going to start with shots or explosions, it'll start with a blackout. And go down from there.
You can keep water in the bathtub, but how long will that last and what good will it do? It’s all food for thought, though, and personal reflection.

