NINE MILLION BICYLES IN BEIJING

Remember the song Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing, well there are now many more electric bikes than that, even in this the Day of the Car in China. In fact, there are now 120 million electric bikes throughout China. They are replacing conventional bikes and motorcycles.

200,000 electric bikes were sold in the U.S. last year. Best Buy is selling them in the West. They help in dealing with traffic, they’re effortless, cheap and good for the environment. Spurred by the electric bike explosion in China, electric bikes have been proliferating and are now an $11 billion global industry.

Millions are switching to electric bikes, especially the aging population. They’ve helped the bike industry because they incorporate components that require regular replacement. They cost less than $500 in China, and up to $3,000 in the West. New York has a dedicated electric bike dealer, and business is good

One kind is a standard bicycle with pedals and an electric motor that engages on command or when the cyclist pedals. These are most popular in the U.S.and Europe. In China, electric bikes have evolved into bigger machines that look more like a moto scooter.

They travel up to 30 miles per hour with a range of 50 miles. These larger models are a problem for planners. Are they green transportation or a hazard? City governments haven’t yet figured out what to do with them. While they certainly have fewer emissions, they do use lead batteries with a significant potential for environmental damage. It’s a choice.

CYCLING IN HAWAII

Cycling in general has never been very popular in Hawaii. I was sad in Paris too, where I saw so many people riding bikes, and signing up for the program that allows you to ride them from one bike stand to another. It’s impressive.

At our Neighborhood Board meeting last month, someone asked if the police could keep the cyclists off the sidewalks. Other people want to keep them off the streets. Cyclists have so few friends in Hawaii, and the Hawaii Bicycling League hasn’t been able to do much about it.

I remember a jury trial involving an accident where a car struck a cyclist on the sidewalk. On voir dire, half the jurors didn’t like bikes on the sidewalk and the other half didn’t like them on the street. The case settled fast.

I also remember Frank Fasi’s bike lanes, long time passing. That was the most ambitious bike lane program we ever had, but the lanes are old and overridden. We gave up on them, didn’t we? That’s what I call a magnificent squander.

We do have the best climate and topography in the world for bike commuting, but we don’t do it. More often, motorists just don’t or can’t see them and run them over. The Dick Evans Bike Race was named for a racer I knew who was killed some years ago by a bus across Pearlridge. People are afraid of that.

DANGEROUS RESENTMENT

No one wants to ride anymore – there are no bike lanes and it’s dangerous. I remember the way HPD once handled a peleton at Kapiolani Park – the officer thought he’d make his point by cutting in front of them and stopping. Well, they all crashed into his squad car and wound up in the hospital.

Lots of people resent cyclists. They want them to disappear. The net effect is that we don’t have much cycling in Honolulu, even though it’s a natural for bicycle commuting most days of the year. But as the city develops, without bike lanes, the chance that people will take to bicycle commuting dwindles. This possibility is all but gone.

What about the mopeds? They might have been a good choice for commuting, but it hasn’t worked out that way, and they’re used by tourists or students, but not commuters. Drivers don’t like when they’re used rambunctiously and now there’s a bill in the legislature that would crack down on them. Worse, they’re fossil fuel and noisy. Not exactly the green approach, and not exactly popular.

Can you imagine how much better the traffic would be if commuters switched to electric bikes? There would be an immediate and uplifting improvement. We’d save a fortune in gas, just plugging in at home. We’d spend less time in traffic jams and get to work faster, and we’d have less trouble parking. The bikes would be silent, fast, convenient and inexpensive to buy and operate.

Sure, you can be injured or killed on an electric bike. But if we all promised to be considerate and to respect the riders, electric bikes could be almost as safe as cars. If there are lots of electric bike riders, they would be easier to see and therefore safer to drive. Yes, there is safety in numbers.

WHAT WILL IT TAKE

120 million Chinese electric bicycle riders can’t be wrong. These high tech bikes are worlds better than any small commuter vehicle we’ve had before, and with their luxurious speed and range they’d be perfectly swell for city driving.

Hawaii has long had a love affair with big cars. That will undoubtedly continue. But wouldn’t it be wonderful if a critical mass of people could take a chance and get out there with electric bikes. They could save money, save the environment, save time and save our city. How hard would that be?

Although there are millions of electric bikes in the world, I have not actually seen any here. So I searched Electric Bike Hawaii on Google and to my surprise I found that yes there are a number of shops that do sell them here. You can look those shops up too, and that’s probably a good place to start.

You’ve seen plenty in the media about the decline of the newspapers and the consolidation of TV news and all manner of things demonstrating how weak readership and advertising are and how the conventional media are failing and trying desperately to find new business models. It’s not a happy story.

What is the role of news in a free society? How important is it to the maintenance of our Republic? Can we afford to give news and knowledge of public affairs up in favor of sports and entertainment? Probably not, and it’s risky to try. A free society must be informed to be sustainable, and Hawaii is no exception.

So we’re setting this ambitious program up as a half-day breakfast through lunch program on Thursday, March 18th at the Plaza Club, on the 20th floor right after its current remodeling and the installation of some $40,000 of new high-tech AV equipment there. We want to attract a large and curious crowd, and do it right.

The content is exciting because, like it or not, we’ve been struggling with this problem for some time. It’s eating us and no clear answer has yet appeared. Even today, there was an article online reporting that Newsday in New York, after deciding to charge $5 a week for its new online news service, was only able to garner 35 subscribers over a six month period. That’s an unmitigated disaster.

We need to know what’s happening in and around the news business, from the reporting to the advertising, and why. We need to know where people are getting news from these days, and why they’re leaving conventional media. These changes undoubtedly reflect more profound undercurrents we don't fully appreciate.

More important, we need to know what technology is being developed on the Internet as to attract the two sides of the equation - the news and the public - and why. The web is 15 years old and it now has tools and technology that are capable of gathering, organizing and delivering news as never before.

What psychology, what motivations, what factors make people want news in their daily lives? News brings us together, it empowers us to analyze and relate to the world around us and know where we belong in that world. It’s the daily input that stimulates us and enables us to better perform in our lives and show worth to our friends. To lose this gift would be a great loss to all of us.

Hawaii has lots of journalists and media professionals, and we can learn a lot from our local luminaries. But to extend our knowledge into a global context, which we need to do, we need to rub shoulders with thought leaders from other places. That’s why we’ve decided to bring some speakers in for this program.

We want to know how the transformation of news is transforming our society, so we’re starting with a wakeup keynote by a noted constitutional scholar, Avi Soifer, Dean of the William S. Richardson School of Law, who can raise our awareness about the role of news in a free society and in our way of life.

Then we’ll have three animated panels. The first is called the Transformation of the News, which will help us understand the decline and consolidation of conventional media, the economic and professional challenges, changes and prognostications of what is likely to happen in the next several months. This is a discussion by people who have been watching the decline of the media.

The second is called the Transformation of the Delivery System, which will help us understand the emergence of news websites and streams on the Internet and mobile platforms, and the current explosion of YouTube, iPhone and social networking. This is a discussion by people who have been watching the growth of new and amazing dissemination technologies.

It goes further. The third panel will deal with Challenges, Limitations and Business Models to help us understand the need for editors and gatekeepers and the risks without them, rating systems and credibility, how to avoid a free-for-all, and the troubles of disinformation, misinformation and manipulation of the news. This is a discussion by people who have seen the difficulties we will have to face before we can find the truth.

After lunch, the program will go on to conclude with a keynote dealing with the role some of these new tech structures, namely the Peer News organization Pierre Omidyar is creating in Hawaii, will play in the larger transformation.

I’m not completely ready to give you our lineup. It will be finalized shortly and will be quite impressive. It will include publishers, editors, journalists and columnists from the local news, magazines and TV news organizations, local PR people, local Internet and mobile platform programmers, and a media lawyer to boot.

As if that wasn’t enough, we’re bringing in at least one notable thought leader to participate in each of our three panels. Without getting specific, we have a famous American blogger from China, a tech columnist from Newsweek and another from TechCrunch. They’re all world class and worth coming miles to see, and we expect that putting them together with our local luminaries will really ignite some new ideas!

Got you curious? The flyer will be circulated next week, and will identify all the visiting thought leaders and local luminaries by name. If you want a special copy, email me at fidell@lava.net. NewsMorphosis is at the intersection of what we used to know and what we need to know, individually and as a community, all made possible through the miracle of modern technology. Be there.

On Tuesday January 19th, the Plaza Club was awash in tech and government players and well-wishers for the Crucible 2010 program. Something more than 120 people showed up and the 21st floor of Pioneer Plaza swelled with enthusiasm. Things were made a bit more complicated by the fact that the Club is presently under construction, but that didn’t get in the way - the new digs somehow enhanced the network energy.

The program, if you’ve read my earlier blogs, was intended as a forum for the tech coalition established around Senator Carol Fukunaga and Representatives Angus McKelvey and Gene Ward, to present its subgroup recommendations for new tech initiatives and bills to be introduced in the 2010 session.

The coalition has been working on this, with the support of Fukunaga, McKelvey and Ward since the program we did last October called Rebuilding in 2010, a reference to the work the tech industry will have to do to recover from the unpleasant and regrettable demise of Act 221 in the 2009 session.

We had stirring remarks from HVCA president bill Spencer, from new HSTC president Keiki-Pua Dancil, from Fukunaga, McKelvey and Ward, and then from a lineup of luminaries who presented reports on behalf of the five subgroups. They were great, and their proposals were thoughtful and well received. And tailored for the times - they did not call for any significant expenditure of funds in the 2010 session.

Now it remains for the industry to do some adding and tweaking, as discussed that evening, and then have those bills introduced for consideration in this session. Everyone seemed comfortable that the legislature would recognize that the most important thing is to build the economy to produce greater jobs and revenue, and that that’s the best way to raise money to deal with our state’s budgetary crisis.

Most people in the room rightly saw Tuesday’s event as a new starting point, the first day in a new chapter for the tech industry in Hawaii. It’s no longer about act 221. Rather, it’s a new time where the industry can come together, build consensus among itself and its supporters in the legislature, and design initiatives that will take the sting out of what happened and get on with building the industry.

The crowd was rich in its interaction and sometimes insistent in its questions, skillfully moderated by Bob Toyofuku. The program was marked by good presentations, good process, good networking, and good initiatives. It represented more than just affirmation of the subgroup recommendations, it seemed to reflect a new level of collaboration and a new level of political will for the tech industry.

To close, we had closing commentary from Bill Spencer on what we learned, mainly, all about the development of political will in a time when political will is an essential ingredient for any initiative. And we heard from Sharon Miyashiro, our “mystery guest” from the closely related Energy Policy Forum.

The program ended with at least five “talking tables” manned by the subgroup speakers, in a sea of libation and bonding. The networking was furious and memorable, and went on for quite a while. The gemutlicheit was palpable, thanks in large part to our sponsors Hawaii Venture Capital Association, ThinkTech Hawaii, Hawaii Business Magazine, Oceanit, Commercial Data Systems, Kolohala Venture Fund, Robert Toyofuku, McCorriston Miller Mukai MacKinnon and Cardax Pharmaceuticals. Anyone who wasn’t there missed a special event and a special experience.

Here are the top-rated bills among those proposed by the five subgroups, with their respective coalition priorities:

1 General Financing (Priority 1) - Based on Utah 'fund of funds' legislation; now looks more like a 'hybrid-SPIF' bill.

2 Enabling Environment (Priority 1) - Relating to Procurement; 5% price preference for local high-tech goods & services; requires use of local resellers in WSCA procurements and use of 'ulimited use licenses' in state contracts.

3 Enabling Environment (Priority 2) - Concurrent resolution requesting DAGS evaluation of federal process for procurement notice, 41 USC 416.

4 Enabling Environment (Priority 3) - Removes cap of 25 charter schools allowed in state or gives preference to new charter school applications focusing on STEM.

5 Research & Development (Priority 1 and 3) - Relating to High Technology; Extends Act 221 for research activities from 2010 to 2011 and creates High Technology Research & Development Task Force to draft future legislation.

6 Renewable Energy (Priority 2) - Relating to Taxation; Amends 235-12.5 to expand credit for renewable energy projects installed on commercial properties.

7 Renewable Energy (HSTC Permitting Priority 1) - Relating to State Enterprise Zones; Expands eligible business activity in State enterprise zones to include development or production of various types of renewable energy.

8 Renewable Energy (Priority 1) - Relating to Renewable Energy; Allows more types of renewable energy projects in State's conservation districts.

9 Renewable Energy (HSTC Permitting Priority 3) - Relating to Renewable Energy Projects; Requires permit application fulfilling minimum requirements to be accepted for processing w/in 10 working days of permit application date.

10 Renewable Energy Permitting (HSTC Permitting Priority 2) - Relating to Renewable Energy; Exempts RE facility from subdivision requirements deemed to be approved if not disapproved within 90-day time period.

11 Creative Media (Priority 1) - Relating to Creative Media; Establishes task force to develop future legislation.

12 Creative Media - Relating to Economic Development; Renames Hawaii TV/Film Development Special Fund to Hawaii Film Office Special Fund - support for Hawaii Film Office.

You can check up on these bills as the session goes forward on capitol.hawaii.gov, hvca.org and hiscitech.com. The event is over, but the Crucible will continue and a new chapter has just begun. We need to advance these initiatives as an industry collaborative, and for that our work is only starting. So don’t be surprised if you get a call from the coalition asking for your testimony on them.

First generation e-Readers had black and white text. Second generation had graphics and connectivity. Now, third generation e-Readers have color screens, interactive graphics and magazine style layouts. They’re getting easier to read.

Beyond that, "Skiff" and other post-Kindle e-Readers are expanding their reach to include multiple sources of news. They will change the way we get our news, and any change in that could change the way we think.

Check these three out:

SKIFF

Skiff, working with Marvell, announced its e-Reader and Reader Development Kit at CES last week. The RDK has software for Skiff’s e-Reading service and lets you download newspapers, magazines, books and blogs wirelessly.

The Skiff supports multi-function smartphones, tablets, netbooks and other display and wireless technologies. Content publishers can sell advertising alongside their content. This makes e-Reading into a mainstream media delivered on the web by a device that looks and acts like a newspaper.

The Skiff is state-of-the-art with an 11.5 inch stainless foil display. It’s easy to hold, use and carry, and it’s flexible and sturdy. It has high resolution and a touch screen. You can turn pages with the swipe of a finger. The battery works for a week. It’ll run on 3G Sprint and supports Wi-Fi connectivity.

Newspaper and magazine articles will appear on the Skiff with high-resolution graphics. Skiff is negotiating with unnamed partners for content. Like other e-Reader, Skiff is developing a color screen model. It will go on sale later this year in Sprint locations and on its website. The price is not yet announced.

LOGIC QUE

The Plastic Logic Que was also introduced at CES. It’s also lightweight, and directed toward the business user. It’s the size of a yellow pad and has a shatterproof plastic touch screen that makes it lighter than glass e-Readers.

Users can download books through the Que store or from content partners such as USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes and The Atlantic. Apps will let you send email and attachments to your Que for reading on the road.

It’s not the paperless office, but it is the paperless briefcase. Plastic Logic says a 4GB model will be Wi-Fi and store 35,000 documents and the 8GB model will store 75,000 documents. The Que will go on sale in April at $649 and $799.

ENTOURAGE EDGE

EnTourage eDGe has a folding design with an e-Reader on the left side and a netbook on the right. They’re calling it a Dual Book. It's not two devices, but one device with two synchronized screens.

If you want to look up a word, you highlight it and the definition appears in a Google search field on the netbook side, running on Google's Android OS. Wi-Fi offers reading, web surfing, email and video with a virtual keyboard.

EnTourage will launch the eDGe with an e-Book inventory of textbooks, trade books and public domain titles. It has a microphone and camera to let you record lectures and presentations. It weighs three pounds and will cost $490.

BLIO IS SOFTWARE

The most revolutionary e-Reader announced at CES is not hardware at all, but a software application called Blio, built by futurist Ray Kurzweil. It transforms any laptop, netbook or smartphone into an advanced e-Reader.

Blio uses the original PDF files from content publishers to preserve the format of the books and magazines, including layout, lettering, color and graphics. It also supports video and web links.

How cool is this? As you highlight words on the page, a computer voice reads them for you. Blio could be a great tool for people with reading disabilities. It also translates to and from English.

Blio will be available as a free download next month, and we should all try it. Then, through a partnership with book distributor Baker & Taylor, it will be launched with an online store carrying over a million titles.

You won't be able to get your hands on any of these e-Readers for at least a month, but they will offer new possibilities for distribution of content. They were not designed to save the news industry, but it could end up that way.

One is the Energy Policy Forum presentation from 10:00 a.m. to noon on January 8th at the Auditorium in the Capitol Building, and the other is the ThinkTech-HVCA Crucible 2010 program from 4:00 to 6:30 p.m. on January 19th at the Plaza Club downtown.

The notable thing is that industry, which was somewhat fragmented last year, is back again and together, in prepared programs with organized presentations, to inform and request action by the legislature on their initiatives. It all seems to signify a new and better time for industry, and a new energy (no pun) that will hopefully move us forward.

Are these to programs redundant? You’ll only know if you attend both, but as you can see from the agenda listings shown below the Energy Policy Briefing is focused on and limited to energy issues, while Crucible 2010 covers a wider range of tech activities.

We surely hope these programs go well, and that they are well received and acted upon by the legislature. We think programs of this nature are essential to develop and maintain a productive relationship among industry, the administration and the legislature, and that they should be a continuing part of the pre-opening proceedings this and every session.

ENERGY POLICY BRIEFING

This faced-paced event, “Energy Fuels our Hawai‘i Economy,” organized by the Energy Policy Forum, will focus on key industry needs for the 2010 session. As before, Sharon Miyashiro of the Forum is the primary organizer, with lots of support from her friends.

After my welcoming remarks, Representative Hermina Morita, Chair of the House Energy and Environmental Protection Committee (EEP) will provide her opening remarks. Ted Peck of DBEDT will report on Recent Developments in Clean Energy, all to be followed by updates from three of Hawaii's Energy Pacesetters (TBA).

The second part of the program will involve presentation of the initiatives recommended by the Energy Policy Forum and its representatives. Carl Freedman will discuss “Sustaining Energy Leadership,” Darren Kimura will discuss “Maximizing Energy Efficiency,” and Kelly King and Mark Duda will discuss “Advancing Energy Incentives.” The closing remarks will be presented by Senator Mike Gabbard, Chair of the Senate Energy and Environment Committee (ENE).

After Q&A, the third part of the program will involve continued discussion with energy experts in the top growth sectors on the 4th Floor Concourse in the Capitol. Attendees will be able to visit with these experts and learn how they are bringing their projects to reality, creating jobs and building a clean energy future for our state.

These experts include Kelly King on Biofuel; Rick McQuain on Biomass; John Ishikawa on Concentrating Solar Power; Duane Ashimine on Energy Efficiency; Brian Goldstein on Electrical Vehicle; Michael Kaleikini on Geothermal; Ray Starling on Hydro Power; Reb Bellinger on Ocean Energy; Sharon Ishikawa on the Smart Grid; Rick Reed on Solar Hot Water; Mark Duda on Solar Photovoltaic; Carlito Caliboso; Ted Peck and Dean Nishina on Public Leadership; Lance Tanaka on Transportation Fuels; and Noe Kalipi on Wind.

What a group! These energy sectors represent an estimated $1.3 billion in Hawai‘i project revenue over the next five years. And you can ask them any question. What a great way to get educated and excited about energy. Just come to the Capitol Auditorium at 10:00 a.m. this Friday, January 8th.

CRUCIBLE 2010

This is a ThinkTech-HVCA program designed to hammer out Tech Initiatives for the 2010 session, especially financing in the wake of Act 221. It involves a broad based group of tech industry and government participants organized with the encouragement and support of Senator Carol Fukunaga and Representative Angus McKelvey. It is different in that regard from previous programs of this nature. In fact, industry and various government officials have collaborated on these issues since September 2009.

After my welcoming remarks, Bill Spencer of HVCA will report on “The State of Tech: Jobs and So Much More” and Keiki-Pua Dancil, the new CEO of the Hawaii Science and Technology Council will address the group on “Hawaii’s Future in Technology.”

Senator Fukunaga and Representative McKelvey, after having worked hard to bring the industry together and elicit view from the industry and government, will report on the status of efforts by the “Tech Coalition Workgroup” that has been meeting at the Capitol.

Then down to specific recommendations by an all-star cast. David Watumull and Karl Fooks will present initiatives on General Financing; Mark Gilbert and Yuka Nagashima will present on Enabling Environment; John Chock and Ian Kitajima will present initiatives on the R&D Credit; Darren Kimura and Ted Peck will present on Renewable Technology; and Ric Galindez and Nancy Grekin will present on Creative Media.

Bill Spencer and I will then wrap up with present closing remarks. This program is important in view of the vacuum left by the contentions we experienced in the 2009 session, but also because of the fiscal difficulties widely anticipated in the 2010 session.

Cheers to Carol Fukunaga and Angus McKelvey for their support of the industry and thanks to the various members of the coalition for their diligence in carving out new initiatives, and kudos to the presenters for their skill and courage in presenting them.

It’s not clear exactly what the presenters will be recommending or what bills they will suggest to the legislators who attend, what kind of Q&A will be elicited, or for that matter what kind of response or drama those legislators will provide for the program.

We can only hope that these initiatives will be appealing, the attendees will be receptive, and that this program will gain some meaningful traction for the session to follow.

After the presentations, there will be Libation and Bonding providing a major network opportunity. You can reserve a place by calling HVCA at 262-7329 or ThinkTech at 524-0544, or email Bill Spencer at bspencer@hawaii.rr.com or me at fidell@lava.net

If you want to know what‘s going on in tech and energy these days, or if you want to prepare for what is expected to be an interesting session, sign up for both programs. After all, what other discussions could be more important to the future of our state?

On NPR's Marketplace at 6:00 p.m. on Sunday, December 24th, there was an piece about some bluebloods in Germany who were trying to build solar array parks. There were objections to this by neighbors who argued they didn’t want a solar array in their backyards.

Popularity-wise, Germany probably has the most successful renewables program in the world, so this is discouraging. You’d think everyone would pull together and nobody would stand in the way. But even there, in a country well-proud of its renewables development, there are people who cry NIMBY.

I guess that’s the way the world works. As we build more renewables, we’re going to be stepping on more toes in more places and getting more NIMBY complaints. So what’s happening in Germany is a forerunner of what is probably going to happen elsewhere in Europe and in the U.S., to say nothing of Hawaii.

The fact is that renewables take space, their footprints are often larger because they need to capture energy resources from nature over relatively large areas. Watt for watt they would be larger, for example, than a power plant generating the same load. People don’t realize how much space is involved for solar, PV parks and of course windmills with 100 foot blades set wide apart in a field.

The more space they take the more likely is the eventual NIMBY. Is this happening in Hawaii? You bet it is, and sometimes it’s obscured by an overlay of other issues, such as the expression of cultural or environmental concerns. Before we accept those expressions, however, we need to take a closer look.

Hawaii is not growing higher, it’s growing further out. Sure there are condos in Kakaako, but in most places there are single family residences spreading out in every direction, sometimes taking over former agricultural lands, and effectively paving over our state. What happens if renewables are in the way?

I wish it were as simple as who got there first. If the residential neighborhoods were there first, certainly the renewables would be hard pressed to infringe on them. But, and here’s the problem, even if the renewables were there first, the creeping residential neighborhood will likely prevail in the resulting tension. In short, urban sprawl always seems to force other uses to go somewhere else.

This reminds me of the Waimanu Home operated for years and years by the State Department of Health at the top of the Waimanu Home Road in Pearl City. Although when the Waimanu Home was dedicated as a state hospital for the mentally disadvantaged its location was quite remote, as the years went by residential neighborhoods crept up the hill right to its fence.

At some point the Home was closed, so as the neighborhood grew up the hill there was no objection to it. A few years ago, however, world-famous tropical disease researcher Dr. Duane Gubler got permission and funding from the National Institutes of Health to build a world class Bio Safety Laboratory there.

But the neighborhood had become contiguous and NIMBY raised its ugly head. The neighbors spoke out against the lab and Gubler couldn’t build there. Undaunted, he convinced NIH to relocate the lab and funding to Kakaako, where it later died a excruciating death at the hands of UH officials. Frustrated, he left Hawaii and built his world class lab for Duke in Singapore.

As an island state Hawaii has limited land and is ultimately a small place with too many and too little land. NIMBY is a big problem which has had and will continue to have a huge effect on the development of renewables. No surprise that we have a competition among renewables. In the end, some will prevail and others won’t. It’s a process of community selection, based not on science or community benefit but on he who complains loudest about his back yard.

NIMBY and the power politics of blatant self-interest that customarily surround it will play an increasing role in this selection process and thus in the development of our renewables infrastructure. Its effect, sad to say, will not be helpful but will rather constitute an obstruction to that development.

Take geothermal. Nobody wants to be near geothermal. There was a cultural outcry that obstructed geothermal development in the 1990’s, a community resistance that continues to limit geothermal production in Puna even though the Ormat plant there could produce many times more than its present 38MW. I’m not so sure it was all cultural - some of it could be old fashioned NIMBY.

The fact is that nobody wants the noise and steam near them. A plant like that looks like something from Mars and nobody wants it in his or her backyard. Don’t expect geothermal to be anywhere close to a population center, even if that would save the cost of transporting the energy. And if a population center contends for space, don’t expect geothermal to prevail anytime soon.

Let’s look at wind – it’s noisy; those big blades. It’s a problem if you’re nearby, so don’t try to build a windmill in my back yard. A few years ago, various NIMBY factions on the Waianae Coast didn’t want HECO to put wind on Kahe Ridge, the best place in Oahu. As a result, it’s 2010 and still no wind in Oahu.

Many people in Molokai question the 100MW of wind planned for their backyard. It’s more than cultural – some don’t want to be the energy factory for Oahu. They ask why we should suffer windmills that only serve Oahu. What’s in it for me? The jury’s out on what will happen in Molokai, but you can be sure that the developers, and ultimately we the ratepayers, will have to deal with, and make provision for, those who feel this way. It will cost us.

Although our experience is still limited, the direction seems to be that a developer can resolve these NIMBY concerns with coin of the realm, money. Indeed, right now those developers as well as other wind developers in the state are trying to determine how much they will need to give the local communities around these windmill sites, and for how long, to obtain their cooperation and make them feel better about having windmills in their backyards.

There are at least two problems with this. If we are properly focused on a renewables initiative, we need to understand that renewables have to go somewhere. We can’t keep passing the buck until the renewables are so far at the fringe that we are increasing the cost of transporting the energy or just making them impossible. Somebody has to step up to the plate and accept the renewables in his or her back yard. Self-interest must capitulate to the good of the community. Who will go first? Will it be you, and your neighborhood?

Second, the developers who are paying, and the people who are asking for and expecting big bucks to allow renewables in their back yards are not doing any of us a favor. The recipients don’t own the land, they are merely the neighbors. The only reason the money is promised to them is to buy their acquiescence and avoid their protest. We, the ratepayers, wind up paying that expense. State leadership is effectively encouraging this recipe, when in fact it should be discouraging it. As this gets more widespread, you won’t like what happens.

Ah, and then there’s nuclear energy, even the tiny Toshiba micro reactors would undoubtedly generate big time NIMBY. Obviously, nobody wants to live near a reactor and worry all day about glowing all night. Could we ever find a place in Hawaii that everyone would agree is acceptable for nuclear? I doubt it. Too bad, because this alternative might otherwise be attractive, and cheap.

Ocean energy is not a problem for the people inland but I expect that some beachgoers and fisherman won’t want to share the ocean with an ocean energy facility. If it’s over the horizon people wouldn’t much care, but if it’s visible to get in the view, I expect that some people might nevertheless foment resistance. The long and short of it is that NIMBY is always there ready to raise its head.

All in all, PV seems the best choice for NIMBY because it’s quiet. Although it doesn’t produce like wind at night, there are no blades on it and it doesn’t make any noise. What’s more, we can put hedges or fences around them to obscure any view of them and limit the possibility of community opposition.

In general, NIMBY is a restraint on development of our renewables. We need to incentivize communities to accept renewables, not demand hush money for them. People have to realize how important they are to the future of our state and we all have to cooperate in developing and integrating them equitably and quickly. We need to give them priority and abandon the self interest that stands in the way.

We’ve got to get away from the NIMBY mentality if we hope for a renewable future in these islands. It’s like learning to live together in a confined space – a space where land is increasingly dear and where someone is always encroaching on what you thought was a vacant lot. If we are to succeed, we’ve got to learn to make sacrifices for the good of the community. That’s a big “if.”

No discussion of NIMBY is complete without mention of the BANANA phenomenon – “Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone.” This goes way beyond NIMBY - it refers to those who take NIMBY to new levels and use it only as a way to Stop all Progress for its own sake, unconditionally and without any consideration of the greater good. They would not put us in stasis, but rather in reverse.

My theory is that this contingent would constrain state progress because they resent not being part of it or having a part of it or are seeking belated redress for unrelated grievances. Neither justifies acts that would lock us in amber. As a matter of fairness and self-preservation, the community cannot afford to tolerate or accede to any NIMBY claim which has taken on this new dimension, especially when we're talking about energy.

This is really bad, and embarrassing. It’s not as if the drones were a small part of our system – they are a larger and larger part. The military is relying more and more on them and in fact there are some 7,000 of them deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. At least 38 are in the air at any given moment, taking video and sending it back for intelligence.

If they are so important, then really you’d think we would have protected the feeds from the prying eyes of our enemies. In fact, the insurgents were able to listen in to the feeds over an extended period by using a $26 program they downloaded from the internet. It’s called SkyGrabber, and it’s made by Russian programmers for downloading music, photos and videos.

SkyGrabber is easy to find with Google and is still available for download. See skygrabber.com, which says: “You can't use the SkyGrabber for intercepting military, encrypt or private data. SkyGrabber can intercept only legal free data such as pictures, music (mp3), movie (avi, mpg). SkyGrabber is a hobby for person who grabs satellite provider. SkyGrabber is for fun.” (sic)

In another place, the site says: “SkyGrabber is offline satellite internet downloader. It intercepts satellite data (movie, music, pictures) that downloading by other users and saves information in your hard disk. So, you'll get new movie, best music and funny pictures for free. You don't have to keep an online internet connection. Just customize your satellite dish to selected satellite provider and start grabbing.” (sic)

Apparently the Predator was “rushed” into use in 2001 and was not sufficiently tested for vulnerabilities at the time. But, it has been nine years since then, and we might have expected the Pentagon to complete that testing at some point since then. Apparently, they didn’t. And since the drones are in such heavy use these days, it may not be so easy to do it now.

The Pentagon points out that this does not mean the insurgents hacked into our military communication systems, but only that they have been able to view the raw video feeds that our forces use for intelligence gathering. The fact that our enemies can view the feeds is very disturbing, particularly given the possibility that they might also be able to modify the feeds. That possibility alone can make our intelligence less than reliable.

Indeed, the whole affair is disturbing. We have not protected against obvious vulnerabilities and we have clearly underestimated the computer competence of our enemies. We have spent billions on these drones only to have them compromised by a $26 program that any nine year old could download and operate with a satellite dish.

Although the military has spent billions on the most sophisticated military technology in the world, it may not have been keeping up with commonly available PC technology and software available to everyone everywhere, including enemy insurgents. The compromise presents a strange disconnect, a frightening loophole that must be immediately closed.

There are other lessons too. Did the military planners not realize what was happening on the Internet? Did they not know that Russian programmers were capable of and motivated to produce gray market software like this? It looks like we were too fascinated with the expensive stuff to appreciate how fast the technology moves and how powerful it has become. Another lesson, then, is that our military planners must recognize their lack of awareness of what is going on in the PC world and their lack of flexibility in identifying and dealing with it.

We got caught short here, and what happened shows a certain level of complacency about our critical military technology and is an indication that maybe we’re not as sharp as we thought we were. The military has to stay in touch with developments in the world of civilian technology, and we’ve got to do better thinking on matters as important as aerial surveillance over the battlefield.

The other part of it is that the web moves more and more quickly and reaches more and more people in more and more places. Perhaps once we thought that insurgents in undeveloped countries didn’t have a clue about computers and the Internet. Now, we know different. Yet again, we find that technology levels the playing field in every corner of the world and that, like fame, our latest and most brilliant innovations seem to last for only 15 minutes.

I was going to tell you that the core is made of an alloy of uranium, plutonium and zirconium, which has been tested but not yet been commercially produced or used in reactors. I was going to tell you that the micro reactor reflects many innovations and does not use conventional rods to control its nuclear reaction.

I was going to tell you that the design had already been submitted to the NRC and that a bill was being submitted to Congress to allow fast track approval, and that the city of Galena, Alaska, was awaiting that approval to install one.

I was going to tell you that the Toshiba technology changes the game, that it goes far beyond the Three Mile Island technology that melted down in 1979 or the Russian technology that blew Chernoble up and killed 30 people in 1986, and that there have been startling innovations in nuclear technology since then.

And so on. But I actually can’t tell you those things right now. Despite the many articles you can find on the web reporting on Toshiba micro reactors and 4S technology, Galena and worldwide white hot interest in this technology, you also find reports that it is all a hoax, to the point that you can’t be sure if the story is a hoax or the hoax is a hoax. At this point, confidence isn’t justified.

There is a huge amount of information going both ways on the web. This demonstrates how misinformation or disinformation can be proliferated in the absence of an editor or gatekeeper. Toshiba itself, which does in fact do nuclear research, has apparently denied the existence of the micro reactor. When I told one person about the Toshiba technology today, he said “you’re joking.” Right now, I’m not sure, so I won’t say it exists until I know more.

In the meantime, I still believe the technology around nuclear energy has been greatly improved in the past 30 years, that nuclear reactors are smaller, more efficient and safer than they were in the 1970’s or 1980’s, that problems in security and disposal have been substantially ameliorated over those years.

Despite the obvious presence of nuclear submarines and weapons in Hawaii, our people seem terrified about using nuclear reactors for energy. Our State Constitution provides that no nuclear plant can be built, and no radioactive material can be disposed of, without a two-thirds vote of both houses.

This provision was added by the 1978 Constitutional Convention. Had another constitutional convention been authorized by the voters last year, this could have been changed, but no convention was authorized and none took place. Even without that change, we could still build a plant with a two-thirds vote.

Let’s assume a micro reactor can be built, maintenance free and secure, and that nuclear waste can be safely disposed of, as in the case of the hypothetical Toshiba. The naysayers do not accept that. They suggest that even though we have dozens of reactors in the U.S., to say nothing of the ones that can be seen all over France, we should not for a moment consider nuclear power in Hawaii.

All sources of power, including those considered renewables, have an effect of one kind or the other on the environment. Some commentators say nuclear is no worse than some other sources. Hydro power does more damage than coal. Manufacturing PV yields some nasty chemicals, as does battery storage. Bird risks notwithstanding, wind is green. So is ocean energy. Nuclear emits only water vapor – nuclear waste is just as radioactive as it was on the way in.

So let’s not be so quick to dismiss it out of hand. In the long term, given the hastening development of nuclear technology that will enable Toshiba to make this piece of hope come true, we may want to, or need to, consider the nuclear option along with the others, to keep things going strong and make our goals.

I asked local futurist Jim Dator and his friends to help me with the "Ghost of Hawai'i's Future." My question: If we don't improve things, what will Hawai'i be like in 2015?

Here's what they said.

Jim Dator, political science professor:

After 30 years of destroying effective governance by slashing taxes and burying families and governments in overwhelming debt, voodoo economics crashed in 2007. A few people remain obscenely rich, while most hang on in disciplined fear. Instead of using the crash to create a sustainable polity, officials steal from future generations to prop up our fantasy economy. It won't work.

A temporary uptick in pseudo-economic indicators and a brief flood of Chinese tourists might lull us into complacency over the next five years, but for the longer term we'll need honesty, courage and palpable hope.

One way or the other, Hawai'i will become self-sufficient — if not by choice, then by necessity.

Roger Davis, software engineer:

We've got rising unemployment and a threadbare state government that knows only how to slash programs. As bad as things are, these are still the good old days. Predicting short-term oil prices is risky, but long term they'll be way up.

Seventy dollars is the new $30 (per barrel) and budget tourism is in permanent decline.

There is sadly no way to replace our main economic engine in the next five years, but prompt action now could make all the difference 20 years out when Honolulu might otherwise make Detroit look like the Emerald City of Oz.

Fred Duennebier, tectonics and geophysics professor:

Christmas 2015, Mom. We would love to visit but there are so few flights. Since groceries are so expensive, we've been growing vegetables in the yard, but the hungry homeless just steal them. We won't be able to pay the mortgage much longer, and soon we'll also be homeless. We pulled the kids out of Punahou and canceled our PV contract. The planned opening of the rail was delayed again for the lack of funding, so we'll car pool with the neighbors while we can; at least there's no more traffic jams. Some Christmas! Love, Fred.

Hilo is hard, Fred. Thank goodness our community garden is doing well — the stores are so low on food. Our neighbor shares an occasional fish, but there aren't many left to fish for. Another wind turbine broke last week. There are no parts being shipped now, so we have rolling blackouts most every day. Too bad geothermal didn't expand while it could. My back bothers me these days, but there are no specialists left here to treat it. Hope 2016 is better! Love, Mom.

Pat Takahashi, retired engineering professor:

Within five years, and certainly 10, the price of oil will skyrocket way past $100 and even $150 a barrel. Hawai'i will still be so dependent on tourism that as the price of jet fuel escalates our visitor count will plummet, perhaps as much as 50 percent, putting Hawai'i's economy into a long-term depression.

It's already too late to diversify Hawai'i's economy. We should protect what's left by stimulating research for a next generation of aircraft and non-fossil jet fuel. We should ask Sen. Inouye and President Obama to initiate a multibillion dollar effort as soon as possible.

Scott Yim, future studies graduate student:

If furloughs continue for the next five years, Hawai'i's students will be more socialized. They will have more time to spend with their friends, parents and role models. Some will improve their test scores. Others will run amok.

Some parents will use the furloughs to spend more time with their kids. Others will enjoy their newfound freedom and opt for child care. Some employers will cut wages. Others will allow workers to bring their kids in.

Teachers will have more time to prepare, and be less stressed. But they may not want to go back to longer hours.

By 2015, everyone will have learned to accept lower standards. Some will have forgotten the higher ones.

Manfred Zapka, engineer and energy consultant:

Hawaii will have decided among two choices for energy. The first is to attempt a spate of glamour projects, hoping that systemic changes won’t be necessary. The second is to initiate courageous and sometimes uncomfortable energy changes. By 2015, we’ll find that the first won’t work but the second one will.

Rather than concentrate on glamour, we’ll have implemented smart energy solutions that yield rapid payback. By 2015, our energy initiative will properly focus on smaller, more manageable projects throughout the economy. With that, we’ll be well on our way to a sustainable energy future. Hallelujah.

FINDING THE ANSWER

What will Hawai'i be like in 2015? How can we mend our ways to improve the prospects? If we examine those prospects, perhaps we can achieve the insight to enjoy a happier Christmas and build a better New Year.

Dickens was right — questioning the future can help us prepare for it, but perhaps we need to be on the brink before we can find an answer.

The animated handshakes filled the room cheek-to-cheek, and there were old friendships rekindled, old contentions forgotten and new introductions exchanged. The kind of open socialization that really feels good after a long Friday.

The Richardson family was there in force, as was the Law School and for that matter the University, featuring Dean Avi Soifer, Manoa Chancellor Virginia Hinshaw and UH President MRC Greenwood, immersed in graduates, the bar and the legal community.

The program was elegant. Not just the obligatory birthday greetings, but a well-made movie of his life, more than nostalgia - a lesson in Hawaii history. It included footage and interviews not only of CJ and his family but important events with his close friends John Burns and John Burns’ son Jim Burns.

The judges spoke, Ron Moon and Craig Nakamura, to give CJ their thanks for his help and support over the years. The dean spoke of how important CJ was, is and will always be to the Law School, and how they are raising money to raise the roof, a project the dean has been working on since he arrived.

The centerpiece was CJ himself. Working up to it, he listened and smiled as we learned the details and depth of his professional and personal life. But then it was his turn to speak. It was hard for him to get to the podium, and it wasn’t clear what would happen when he got there.

At first he made fun, asking what he was supposed to be doing there, quips that caught you off guard, charmed you and brought you close to him. Then he spoke more seriously and moved into a poetic expression of his appreciation to those around him, making us all family for the moment.

He spoke softly, but with the crisp edge of a man skilled in the law. He chose every word so carefully and tailored his remarks so perfectly for the occasion of the 900 strong. It was pure haiku. I envied that he could talk to us with such precision, and reach us with such warmth, even from the frailty of age.

With all that, his remarks were brief. I think they were well less than five minutes, all the more of a phenomenon. I will remember the evening as a compliment to the school and the community, as a collection of post-statehood generations coming together with heartfelt admiration for a special friend.

The tables held hands as we sang to close. Thanks, Dean Soifer, for putting this together. I hope you do it again, and I hope you raise your roof, as you did on Friday night, with the same inimitable style.